Retail rebounds as 2024 total adds up
Shopping centre investment in the first nine months of 2024 has surpassed the 2023 total, with more than £700m more deals yet to be done.
Figures compiled exclusively for EG by Savills reveal that just over £1.2bn of shopping centres have already traded this year in 38 deals. This compares with just under £1.2bn in the whole of 2023.
The number of shopping centres sold in 2023 was higher – around 50 – signalling a return to larger, more prime sales so far this year.
Shopping centre investment in the first nine months of 2024 has surpassed the 2023 total, with more than £700m more deals yet to be done.
Figures compiled exclusively for EG by Savills reveal that just over £1.2bn of shopping centres have already traded this year in 38 deals. This compares with just under £1.2bn in the whole of 2023.
The number of shopping centres sold in 2023 was higher – around 50 – signalling a return to larger, more prime sales so far this year.
Last year was the lowest level of trading in the shopping centre market since the Covid-driven doldrums of 2020 and was some 22% down on 2022.
Several big-ticket sales failing to come to fruition in 2023 was blamed for the low numbers. A number of those, including British Land’s £360m sale of its half-stake in the 1.4m sq ft Meadowhall in Sheffield to partner Norges Bank Investment Management, completed in the first half of 2024.
According to Savills, some 12 shopping centres, with a combined value of £516m, are currently under offer, including Nuveen’s 25% stake in the 850,000 sq ft retail element of St James Quarter in Edinburgh, which it is advising on. A further eight schemes – valued at £191m – are in the market.
Savills has warned, however, that the supply of available shopping centres may soon become limited, owing to the lack of development in the sector over the past two decades.
In the retail park sector, almost £1.4bn of deals have been completed, with a further £330.8m under offer and £729.7m in the market.
Writing for EG this week, head of UK and European commercial research at Savills, Mat Oakley, said: “While the Q3 2024 data is not fully counted yet, it is clear that the first nine months of 2024 will have been more active than the same period last year at an all-sector level.
“There is no doubt that conversations I am having with investors sound more optimistic about the future, more optimistic about the UK as an investment destination, and more optimistic that some values are poised for recovery.”
He added: “Any recovery in optimism should always be measured against some in the industry’s tendency to amplify one green shoot into a small meadow, and it is worth noting that the CBI business confidence index swung back into mild negativity in Q3, following its first foray for a long time into positivity in Q2.”
Photo from Savills
