No-deal Brexit could see house prices tumble by 20%

House prices in the UK could fall by as much as 20% if the UK crashes out of the European Union with no deal on 31 October, a new report claims. Research by KPMG has suggested that a no deal Brexit could cause house prices to fall by around 6% in 2020, but a decline of 10%-20% is possible if markets react more strongly than anticipated. Northern Ireland could see the sharpest fall (7.5%), followed by London (7%). If the UK exits with a deal on the 31 October, house prices are expected to stabilise for the rest of this year and rise by 1.3% in 2020. The North West could see the fastest growth in 2019 (1.6%) while Yorkshire and the Humber could see the greatest rise in 2020 (2.4%). Meanwhile, house prices in London will continue to fall in 2019 and 2020, with the sharpest drop of 4.7% expected this year. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “The housing market has been stuck in the slow lane since 2016 – with the changes to stamp duty and the uncertainties of Brexit putting the market on the back foot. “As our forecasts show, a no-deal Brexit will see house prices decline significantly across the UK in 2020 by an average of 6.2%, with more severe falls of around 10-20% also possible if we look at historic precedents.” To send feedback, e-mail lucy.alderson@egi.co.uk or tweet @LucyAJourno or @estatesgazette