It’s time to end the property Brexit chaos

COMMENT: Barely a month after the referendum, the Daily Express led on a story that claimed “house prices rose by more than 10% last month as Britain voted to leave the EU”. As cheering as the headline might have been, a subsequent investigation by the press watchdog IPSO revealed that the rise had actually taken place before the nation voted to leave the EU, not after. The latest figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors bear this out. They showed prices slipping back for the fourth month in a row. Every estate agent I have spoken to about Brexit, even the ones that voted Leave, tell me that property prices – which underpin our economy – are being held back rather than accelerating following the momentous vote of 23 June 2016. Indeed, last week, the Office for National Statistics and the Land Registry reported that annual house price growth in December was at its weakest level in more than five years. The report said that, across the UK, property values increased by 2.5% in the year to December, the lowest annual rate since July 2013. Crisis of confidence No amount of determinedly cheerful, if not mendacious, headlines or bold claims from politicians can obscure what is now all too obvious: the country is in the grip of a crisis of confidence. Estate agents’ offices are the barometer of the nation’s morale, and it is time the government heeded the early warning signs. The UK house prices graph from the Office for National Statistics shows that prices are still rising nationally on a year-by year-basis – if at a reduced rate since the referendum and not in all areas. It is worth saying, too, that the impact has not been anywhere near as dramatic as the 15% or so drop in values that followed the banking crisis of 2007. The rise that followed in 2010 made up for that fall, however, and what is concerning about the current state of the housing market is that we appear to be in what might well turn out to be a long period of flatlining, if not gradual decline. The human cost of the statistics that organisations such as RICS are putting out are in the stories we all hear about but never make the headlines: the elderly widow struggling in a house she knows is too big for her; the young married couple reluctant to have another child because they know they haven’t the space; that dream retirement home in the country that will just have to wait because there aren’t any buyers for the house in town. One of the many ironies of the vote of 2016 is that it was to a large extent about Englishmen metaphorically pulling up the drawbridges around their castles, but the fact is that the weak pound, combined with a buyers’ market, is making prime “castles” in the capital and along the south coast still more vulnerable to marauding overseas investors. In the current market, it is not the estate agents’ fault if you cannot find a buyer for your home, but the government’s. Their chaotic handling of Brexit, combined with their decision in 2014 to levy stamp duty of up to 12% on properties, has led to a fall in the volume of property transactions, a fall in the price of property transactions and a fall in the amount earned by the government from property transactions. In short, it has been an unmitigated disaster. The need for clarity Where we go from here is anyone’s guess. Anyone buying a new home wants clarity – not just from the searches their solicitor conducts on their behalf, but also some sense that they are not making probably the biggest investment they are ever likely to make in their lives at the worst possible time. The message to the government is clear – it is time to end the chaos. Gina Miller is the activist behind the End the Chaos campaign and an advocate of a second referendum. She took the government to court over triggering Article 50 without seeking approval from parliament. Do you want to see Brexit stopped? Send us your views on the issue by email to david.hatcher@egi.co.uk or tweet @hatcherdavid or @estatesgazette