European e-commerce market to mature in 2025
E-commerce spending is expected to mature across all European sub-regions by 2025 in a “watershed year” for retail property, according to new research.
The latest report from Colliers International predicts it will be a further seven years before there is a “rebalancing” of the physical and online retail sectors in Europe.
The Western, Nordic, CEE and Baltic markets are forecast to peak first in 2023; followed by the DACHS regions (Germany, Austria, Slovenia and Switzerland) in 2024; and south-east and southern European markets in 2025.
E-commerce spending is expected to mature across all European sub-regions by 2025 in a “watershed year” for retail property, according to new research.
The latest report from Colliers International predicts it will be a further seven years before there is a “rebalancing” of the physical and online retail sectors in Europe.
The Western, Nordic, CEE and Baltic markets are forecast to peak first in 2023; followed by the DACHS regions (Germany, Austria, Slovenia and Switzerland) in 2024; and south-east and southern European markets in 2025.
Future demand for retail space will either come from new retailers or the online giants, neither of which will be affected by problems experienced by sprawling store networks and their associated overheads.
Etienne van Unen, co-head of EMEA retail at Colliers International, said: “We are seeing a significant slowdown in e-commerce growth and we believe that the market share achieved by online retailing in the UK – which is about 27% – is not going to be repeated elsewhere in Europe.
“For all European sub-regions, we expect 2025 to be a watershed year as e-commerce spending reaches a point of maturity across these territories.”
The report also predicts Amazon will reinvent the concept of supermarkets and department stores to become “one of the world’s largest occupiers of retailing space”.
No respite for landlords
At the same time, real wage growth is forecast to help drive up discretionary retail spending by around 3.9% per annum across Europe during the next five years.
But Colliers International noted it would not provide much respite for beleaguered retail landlords.
Paul Souber, co-head of EMEA retail at Colliers International, said: “This wage growth and increase in spending will not on its own ride to the rescue of the physical retailing sector as it is unlikely to translate into any real uplift in demand for space.
“The retail property sector cannot sit around and simply wait for online growth to diminish and for the big internet brands to start opening more stores.
“Drastic action is needed. Redundant retail space must be eradicated through demolition or being repurposed into residential and other alternative uses.”
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