Election looms. What are the implications for development?

Just over two weeks remain until the local elections and around 20 months are left to negotiate Brexit. Anybody accusing the government of not being sufficiently busy will be eating their words now. And now, according to prime minister Theresa May’s announcement on 18 April, there are now just under 50 days until the next General Election. That is, of course, if it happens at all. The first hurdle to all this is the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011, the brainchild of then-deputy prime minister Nick Clegg, which prevents the PM from simply going to the Queen to dissolve parliament. In order to get her election, Mrs May must first get two-thirds of MPs to vote in favour of calling a General Election. Early pronouncements from Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems indicate that they will back a fresh election and one would assume that May would have made this move only after having squared it with her own MPs. However, there is an added complication. There are just under 50 MPs with majorities of fewer than 2,000 in the House of Commons, 20 of whom are Conservatives. The question for these, as well as the many MPs with not very much larger majorities, is simple: do turkeys vote for Christmas? Do you obey the whip and lose your seat, or defy the whip in the hope that there are enough other MPs concerned about their careers to defy Theresa May the two-thirds support she needs? But, despite this, it does seem highly likely there will be an election on 8 June. What are the implications for development? Doubtless Brexit will be the main theme of the campaign. But any seasoned political street fighter will tell you local issues – the local hospital, the proposed housing development, the state of the roads – will come into play too. Firstly, let’s suppose you are a member of a planning committee due to decide on that controversial planning application on 1 June. Rather than make a decision that could eat into one of those wafer-thin majorities, or cost your parliamentary candidate a chance of winning, wouldn’t you rather defer the decision? Maybe a site visit is needed, or the design review panel should have another look, or members should scrutinise the viability assessment more – any of these would serve to kick a potential grenade into the safety of the post-election long grass. Secondly, councillors are the foot soldiers in elections. MPs don’t avoid local government reform only because it’s boring – it’s also because it could result in a reduction in the number of their core campaigners. These councillors will be busy pounding pavements and knocking on doors until the election; trying to engage with them will be difficult to say the least. Thirdly, there is a small possibility that the local elections and mayoral elections could be postponed now until 8 June. We are already into purdah for these, meaning councillors and planning departments are at a bit of standstill. This will carry on now until June. Finally, when all is said and done and the Conservatives have a new, increased majority (let’s face it, they will) we need to consider a cabinet reshuffle. Will it be Sajid Javid occupying the largest office at DCLG or someone else? And with a fresh mandate, will Mrs May refocus (even if ever so slightly) on matters other than Brexit, with potentially more planning and housing white papers that we hope have a bit more to say than the one earlier this year. Ultimately, the world needs to keep spinning and the planning system needs to trudge on. Dealing with twitchy politicians and their officers at town halls will be an even more delicate art than usual over the next 50-odd days – treading carefully should be the way forward. Tom Curtin is chief executive of Curtin & Co