EDITOR’S COMMENT The chaos around Donald Trump’s trade tariffs have caused entirely avoidable pain across markets and around the world. And yet it’s difficult to think that it would ever have been any other way.
This week I finished reading Michael Wolff’s All or Nothing: How Trump Recaptured America. The book, published in February, is of course only one perspective on events, and the US president has described it as “a total FAKE JOB, just like the other JUNK [Wolff] wrote”. But the impression it gives is of a man and a team largely making up strategy as they go, with nothing in the way of a grand plan. There’s little reason to think policies enacted this week were any different.
In the book’s epilogue, Wolff gives a passing mention to Trump’s expected attitude towards trade. “He will try tariffs until their consequences become too complicated and too many CEOs complain to him,” the author predicts. Sure enough, ahead of some degree of Trump backtrack on Wednesday, with bond and equity markets in turmoil, JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon wrote in his letter to shareholders that “some of the negative effects [of the tariffs] increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse”.
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EDITOR’S COMMENT The chaos around Donald Trump’s trade tariffs have caused entirely avoidable pain across markets and around the world. And yet it’s difficult to think that it would ever have been any other way.
This week I finished reading Michael Wolff’s All or Nothing: How Trump Recaptured America. The book, published in February, is of course only one perspective on events, and the US president has described it as “a total FAKE JOB, just like the other JUNK [Wolff] wrote”. But the impression it gives is of a man and a team largely making up strategy as they go, with nothing in the way of a grand plan. There’s little reason to think policies enacted this week were any different.
In the book’s epilogue, Wolff gives a passing mention to Trump’s expected attitude towards trade. “He will try tariffs until their consequences become too complicated and too many CEOs complain to him,” the author predicts. Sure enough, ahead of some degree of Trump backtrack on Wednesday, with bond and equity markets in turmoil, JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon wrote in his letter to shareholders that “some of the negative effects [of the tariffs] increase cumulatively over time and would be hard to reverse”.
“In the short run,” Dimon added, “I see this as one large additional straw on the camel’s back.”
Agency bosses weighed in on the risks back in their Q1 earnings calls. Real assets in themselves shouldn’t see a great impact from tariffs, but there will still be consequences. The top team at Colliers had said worries over a trade war had already led to “uncertainty amongst occupiers and investors, particularly industrial occupiers and investors that relate to the trade and goods across borders”.
Anything that lessens connection or encourages businesses to look solely inwards, seems totally at odds with everything progressive and impactful about real estate as an industry.
As with real estate’s reactions to the other cowardly, backwards messages coming from the White House, I’m hopeful that the industry will focus on what it does best. As Cushman & Wakefield chief executive Michelle MacKay said on the agency’s own call: “Property has proven throughout history in many administrations that it can navigate these changes… We’re an advisory business. In times of uncertainty, people need solutions.”
Let’s end on a bright note. We’ve opened this year’s Estates Gazette Awards for submissions. We’ve revamped the categories, introducing new awards for market-defining deals across more asset classes than before. Make sure you head to www.estatesgazetteawards.co.uk to make your submission – the deadline is Friday 23 May.
And you’ll want to book your table for the event itself too. On 20 November, we’ll return to London’s Old Billingsgate for a three-course dinner, entertainment and a celebration of all the winners.
If you’re undecided, here are a few testimonials from last year’s knock-out 20th anniversary event: “Full of energy and vibes with some of the best awards entertainment I’ve ever experienced”; “A stunning event complete with beatboxing, comedy, flashing foam… things, and a lot of sequins”; “While we didn’t walk away with a trophy, we did walk away with enough networking contacts to rival a CRM system”; and “What a phenomenal night! The pictures, the crew and the event BANG ON!”
OK, the last one was from our reporter Shifali Gorka. But even if she’s biased, she’s not wrong. See you there.
