Andy Burnham’s mid-term report card

When Andy Burnham was elected mayor of Greater Manchester in May last year, he made development and homelessness key issues in his manifesto. He promised radical rewrites of spatial frameworks, better transport infrastructure and an eradication of homelessness by 2020. With half of his term over and just 18 months to go until the next Greater Manchester election, what has Burnham delivered? Spatial Framework Burnham’s manifesto promised a “radical rewrite” of the Greater Manchester Spatial Framework, which would outline how the subregion would deliver its commitment to build 211,000 homes over the course of two decades. The problem is that the rewrite has yet to happen. Delays have plagued the document, most recently because of the government’s change in calculating housing need, which in September resulted in a lower housebuilding target for councils across Greater Manchester.  The government later backtracked and advised Burnham to carry on with previous targets, adding to confusion over what the spatial framework will need to deliver. Regardless of who is at fault, a missing spatial framework means developers and local authorities are pausing to find out what is required, leading to a dearth of planning activity across Greater Manchester. Greg Dickson, director at planning consultancy Barton Willmore, says: “There’s a frustration that it hasn’t progressed to anywhere in the 18 months he’s been mayor. “There are more cranes on the skyline in Manchester than possibly ever before, but what we’ve started to see outside the city core is a slowdown and a bit of an issue in terms of the number of applications that are being submitted to local authorities in the GMCA.” Part of the problem, says Rob Haslam, planning director at Savills Manchester, is that Burnham is keeping one eye on the election in 2020. The existing framework estimates about 30% of new homes would have to be delivered on green belt land. However, if Burnham overhauls the plan, delivering the homes that Greater Manchester needs in those areas could affect how favourably voters see him.  Haslam says: “He came in with great rhetoric about wanting to do a radical rewrite and remove any requirements to go into the green belt. People who have been working for him have been struggling to square that. “He won’t want it to be an election issue. There’s no votes in green belt release.” Burnham will be aware that sensitivity over green belt land does have political consequences. Trafford, for 14 years a Conservative-led council, became a minority Labour-led council after a number of Tories were voted out partly over concerns about the green belt. Stockport and Bury are other councils that could swing one way or the other, depending on how the local authorities tackle the issue. But until the spatial framework is completed, Greater Manchester is at risk of falling into the development doldrums. Growth of town centres Manchester’s cranes are now a permanent fixture on the city’s skyline, but the rest of Greater Manchester has not been quite as active. Since becoming mayor, Burnham has made a point of encouraging development in the outer towns in the region. He launched the Town Centre Challenge in 2017, asking councils to work with him and local stakeholders in figuring out how to unlock growth in areas that have “felt left behind”. The mayor had new powers to create mayoral development corporations and to use compulsory purchase orders to back developments. Stockport was an early success story, becoming the first town to take on the challenge, create a plan – covering 130 acres of brownfield land to create 3,000 new homes – and, in September, announce the first mayoral development corporation to drive the project in partnership with the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. Six other towns – Farnworth, Leigh, Prestwich, Stalybridge, Stretford and Swinton – were nominated to take part in February followed by Royton and Oldham in October. These plans have not progressed as far as Stockport’s has, but they do show signs that growth will not be confined to Manchester city centre. Homelessness Wiping out rough sleeping by 2020 was one of Burnham’s key pledges in 2017, and it is one he has taken most seriously. Burnham is donating 15% of his salary to fighting homelessness and he launched a number of initiatives focused on rough sleeping. The mayor’s Greater Manchester Homelessness Network was set up to bring together businesses, local authorities, the public sector and other groups to tackle homelessness and set up a 37-point, 10-year action plan to end all forms of homelessness. A separate business network, chaired by Tim Heatley, co-founder of developer Capital & Centric, was also launched to encourage companies to pledge their support to the issue. At the time it was set up, Heatley said: “Our business leaders have had the creativity, determination and ingenuity to put Manchester’s industries on the world stage. Hopefully they can apply these talents towards, together, transforming the lives of our people without homes.” Heatley and Burnham have also been closely involved in Embassy, a charity that earlier this year took a tour bus and turned it into a shelter with 14 beds to give the homeless in the city a place to sleep and get support as they look for work and permanent homes. Homelessness has been getting worse across the city. According to charity Homeless Link, Manchester had 94 rough sleepers in 2017 – up from just seven in 2010 – which was the fourth-highest for a local authority in the UK.  However, despite homelessness and affordability being central issues for Burnham’s mayoral commitments, he has faced some criticism about his delivery.  Speaking in private, one developer was sceptical about Burnham’s effectiveness in tackling homelessness, considering the delays to the spatial framework. If he wants to tackle the housing crisis, the developer said, Burnham has to ensure development continues. But as long as the spatial framework stays in limbo, the industry will feel constrained in its ability to deliver more homes and, therefore, greater affordability. Infrastructure and transport Manchester prides itself in its ability to draw in talent, investment and development. Where it falls short is its transport infrastructure. Burnham campaigned on making transport – which includes 40 separate bus operators across Greater Manchester – more efficient and cheaper while updating what he called “outdated” trains, which make 30-mile journeys last an hour or longer. He has repeatedly said he wants a London-style system with power over transport. Burnham’s pledges are still in limbo, with the future of regulations – or partnerships with operators –  still up in the air. At the end of October, the mayor called on the government to give Greater Manchester the powers it needs to regulate services, take control of railway stations and give Transport for the North full oversight of rail franchises. He has also called for Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, to give Northern train operators the same focus he did to Govia Thameslink, which is now facing repercussions from the government after the firm’s chaotic timetable overhaul over the summer. Campaigns to re-regulate buses, such as Better Buses for Greater Manchester, have sprung up across the city as Burnham grapples with putting his manifesto pledges into action and finding the powers that allow him to do so. Dickson says: “There needs to be an integrated system that allows you to travel in a connected fashion and means you don’t need 20 different tickets in your pocket at one time.” Whether Burnham and Manchester can deliver that remains to be seen. Visibility for Greater Manchester Figures within the industry broadly agree that Burnham has been able to effectively put Manchester, the subregion and the North as a whole on the national agenda, thanks largely to his lengthy résumé – including stints as an MP, a shadow home secretary and secretary of state for health. Burnham has been vocal in campaigning for Manchester and the North, most obviously in his efforts to improve and integrate Northern transport. He has become something of a figurehead for the city and the region. Haslam says: “He’s already got that national presence. He knows the corridors of Whitehall very well, and that’s been clear in his ability to engage with Westminster.” But, 18 months in, many of those pledges he made and continues to make still need to come to fruition. For the industry, Burnham’s effectiveness will rest on his ability to deliver the spatial framework. Until that happens, the jury is still out on Burnham as mayor. 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