Housing: from scarcity to stability

Years of policy uncertainty and shifting housing targets have left us with a critical shortage of homes and a planning system that often hinders rather than supports development. Despite the former Conservative government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year in England, no more than 248,591 houses have been delivered in any single year since 2000. House prices have grown on average by 6% per annum over the past 30 years as a result, while local authority waiting lists grew by 14% between 2018 and 2023. The arrival of a new Labour government – and a fresh target of 1.5m homes over this next parliament – has brought renewed hope to the housing market, but also a pressing need for decisive action. So what should Sir Keir Starmer’s party focus on in both the short and the long term to improve housing supply across England? Setting a positive tone The first 100 days of office of any new government is critical. Labour will want to outline its commitment to housebuilding, to reassure the market that boosting delivery and solving some of the challenges the industry has faced over the past decade will be prioritised. Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first speech has already set this positive tone, with promises of a consultation on National Planning Policy Framework revisions, a review of green belt boundaries and a focus on ensuring local plans are prioritised, among other pledges. This is an encouraging start that has been warmly welcomed by the industry. But other key areas also need attention in Labour’s first 100 days of power. For instance: increasing the weight given to job creation and housing provision in planning decisions; prioritising affordable housing and rewarding proposals that exceed local policy requirements; extending the presumption favouring development on all brownfield sites within built-up areas; and expediting nutrient neutrality mitigation to unlock stalled developments. Tackling these challenges within the first few months would fundamentally demonstrate Labour’s commitment to change. Many of these initial changes could ultimately simply involve reversing changes made to the NPPF by the previous administration over recent years, which have constrained development and reduced certainty. A long-term vision for housing Arguably, one of the biggest blockers to housing delivery in recent years has been the lack of a comprehensive, long-term national strategy for housing. There’s a real opportunity for Labour to provide the housebuilding industry with the clarity it desperately needs, with the development of an ambitious new national strategy. Such a document, setting minimum housing targets, identifying priority growth areas and demonstrating strategic thinking, aligning with wider economic and environmental objectives and infrastructure plans, would be transformative. While many of these measures are already implicit within existing policy, they are not widely understood, and responsibility is spread across various government departments and external bodies. This only adds to the development challenges and red tape that exists. A national strategy for housing could collate national objectives, mediate competing interests and provide a clear long-term framework for investment. Rethinking housing need assessment The current method of assessing housing need is complex and arguably disconnected from local reality. A fresh approach based on existing housing stock, with adjustments for economic factors, infrastructure investments and demographic trends that indicate higher or lower levels of need, would address this. Each local authority should also be required to plan for its minimum need, with these factors considered to ensure that it meets the needs of the entire community. This would be a simple and more transparent approach, and address criticisms of the current standard method by directly linking future housing need with the current population of an area. Bridging national and local planning To address the disconnect between national policy and local plans, the sector needs strategic spatial guidance. This would translate national priorities into actionable plans for groups of local authorities, aligning economic growth, housing delivery and environmental protection at a regional level. It would establish a framework for preparing more detailed local plans, and set out how plan-makers should collaborate to ensure targets are met and that there is majority approval rather than unanimity, preventing individual authorities from stymieing progress. To add to that, we need mandatory digital local plans covering all of England. These should be prepared with extensive public engagement and adopted within a 30-month time frame. Just 90 of England’s 309 local planning authorities have adopted a local plan in the past five years. A statutory duty to plan must be introduced. Accelerate starts on site As it currently stands, even if planning permission has been granted, a hold-up in discharging planning conditions can mean significant delays to work starting on-site. The Labour government can address this by creating a model of wording for planning conditions, increasing fees while simultaneously introducing a fee refund for decisions not received within six weeks, and reducing the number of pre-commencement planning conditions proposed that overlap with other legislative regimes. Final thoughts These are just some of the recommendations we would make to the new Labour government. Clarity on the approach to development and the green belt (albeit, this is somewhat underway following Rachel Reeves’ speech), improved resource within local planning departments and digitising the planning system are also important elements that should be focused on. That’s why we recently launched our paper From Scarcity to Stability: Planning for the Future of Housing, outlining Turley’s recommendations for the new government to address planning failures, provide clarity and certainty for the sector and ultimately solve our housing crisis. Within its first couple of weeks in office, Starmer’s government has made a promising start. But solving our housing challenges requires strategic, long-term thinking. We hope they can deliver it. Read the full Turley paper here. Tim Burden is a director at Turley Image © Turley