Marr fears no-deal Brexit

“I must apologise,” said political commentator Andrew Marr as he took to the stage at last night’s British Council for Offices (BCO) annual dinner, “…for not being Laura Kuenssberg. What I am about to say could all prove to be totally wrong – and then you can mock me the next time you see me. And I won’t be Laura Kuenssberg then, either.” Fresh from parliament – following prime minister Theresa May’s historic defeat as her Brexit deal was rejected by a massive 230 votes – Marr’s arrival just after 10pm at last night’s event was a feat of exceptional string-pulling by the BCO. With the BBC’s political editor, Kuenssberg, originally on the bill as guest speaker, it was no surprise when she was forced to cancel. But the room needn’t have worried. What the BCO managed to pull off at the last minute on one of the most extraordinary days in modern UK politics was a minor miracle. Marr had a lot to say – and he fears a no-deal Brexit is looking ever more likely. First and foremost, he said, there was “absolutely no point” in May resigning. He went on to “clear away” the long list of things he believes will not happen next. “First of all, Theresa May will not resign as prime minister,” he said. “She has fought very hard to be prime minister. It has, in many ways, been an utterly miserable experience but she appears to have enjoyed it. “The next thing to talk about is a General Election. Jeremy Corbyn has finally put down his motion of no confidence in the Government, but any Tory MPs voting against the government now will be cutting their own throats. It is hard to imagine worse circumstances in which to call a General Election: with a recently humiliated prime minister, it would be a slaughter. And therefore I assume every single Tory MP is going to vote for the government, along with the DUP. So we can put that to one side. You could ask if Theresa May herself will call an election. Again, I would say that is extremely unlikely.” Marr added that he also thought a second referendum was not likely, given this is something that May is staunchly resisting and it would require her to legislate for it and carry it through. “It doesn’t matter what MPs want,” he said. “Only governments can legislate and I can’t see her doing it. And it will not happen fast. It took 11 months to sort out the initial vote – and that was when everyone was pulling in the same direction and there was one simple question to answer.” Plotting He said that there was a team of hard Brexiteers in the House of Lords “plotting and planning” to stop a second referendum happening, adding that, at a social level, he was not sure how people would respond in the run-up to a second vote. “I wouldn’t want to be a reporter covering it,” he said. “Too many people are tanked up and overexcited. An MP died last time. What could happen the second time around? I doubt the result would be vastly different, anyway.” As Marr conceded that he was aware he was quickly leaving himself with nothing much more left on the table in terms of a possible “what next?” prediction, he said that a no-deal exit was looking more likely by the day – before adding that many politicians knew that this would be an unmitigated disaster. “They are scared,” he said. “They don’t want that.” There is, he thought, an alternative: a customs deal. “There are plenty of big attractions,” he said. “It solves a lot of problems and I think a lot of senior MPs will be pushing this on May. It could work, even if people say it is not a real Brexit, as the main reason that the vast majority of people voted to leave was based on issues around immigration. The problem for May is that she will likely lose a quarter of Tory MPs – the likes of Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis – who will argue it is not a proper Brexit. But what else can she do? I think that looks like one of the few workable deals on the table.” Of course, we will only really know what the future holds as the drama continues to unfold in the coming hours and days. But for the BCO delegates at the annual dinner on Tuesday night, Marr must have been one of the most timely speakers ever secured for an industry event. A historic after-dinner speech on what was undoubtedly a historic night for UK politics. Main image © Stewart Writtle To send feedback, e-mail emily.wright@egi.co.uk or tweet @EmilyW_9 or @estatesgazette