Tackling the Tory holy trinity
BUDGET 2017: The General Election highlighted what can happen when trying to tackle the social care crisis, writes James Kingdom, associate director, Research, JLL.
Inheritance, elderly voters and home ownership are the Tory holy trinity so to include what became known as the “dementia tax” in the manifesto was a principled but ultimately costly action.
The odds on any major structural reform to social care in the Budget are slim, thanks to a reduced majority, the preoccupation on Brexit and a technocrat at No 11.
BUDGET 2017: The General Election highlighted what can happen when trying to tackle the social care crisis, writes James Kingdom, associate director, Research, JLL.
[caption id="attachment_898231" align="alignright" width="150"] James Kingdom[/caption]
Inheritance, elderly voters and home ownership are the Tory holy trinity so to include what became known as the “dementia tax” in the manifesto was a principled but ultimately costly action.
The odds on any major structural reform to social care in the Budget are slim, thanks to a reduced majority, the preoccupation on Brexit and a technocrat at No 11.
But action is urgently needed because the current system is no longer equitable or sustainable.
Sticking plasters like the Social Care Precept allowing 3% extra on council tax can only hold for so long when social care budgets will soon outweigh total council tax receipts.
The most likely outcome is that the government will wait for the findings of the CLG committee on housing for older people.
This was the standard response to business rates reform for many years and this issue didn’t cost votes the same way social care can.
In the event of any action on social care, what measures would benefit the real estate market?
A national strategy to support the provision of accommodation for the elderly has been suggested.
More care and nursing beds are a key requirement in this, at least 140,000 over the next decade.
A major issue is that there is little choice of alternative options to a care home, which makes the transition into one all the more traumatic.
Respite, extra care, independent and supported living – aimed at all incomes – will increase the availability of care home beds and reduce pressure on hospitals as well.
The long-term challenges facing social care staffing also promote the need for a wider range of accommodation types.
JLL estimates £47bn of investment is needed into the care sector by 2036 and recent deals show there is investor demand.
Given the immediate need, public land has a vital role to play in delivering new supply.
The HCA is focused on site assembly for housing, and the inclusion of elderly accommodation within these plans would add a level of extra sustainability.
In the absence of any major planning reform to prioritise development, lessons could be taken from the Olympic Delivery Authority and the planning powers granted to it under the 2006 Olympic Act.
Cross-party support would be required to help deliver this, but it would send an important signal to investors that the government was serious about dealing with the issue.
