Is Heathrow expansion right for London?

After much prevarication, the government has chosen Heathrow for airport expansion in the South East. But is that the right choice for London?  When David Cameron’s government pushed a decision about which London airport would gain an extra runway into the long grass 14 months ago, London First’s now-departed chief executive Jo Valentine said the lobby group would be “shouting from the rooftops” if things did not speed up. Happily for London First infrastructure director David Leam, Theresa May’s government’s recent choice of Heathrow means he can avoid any unseemly scrambling among the chimney pots. He looks distinctly relieved when he says: “The key decision has now been made – I do think it has been settled now. We can see the next steps before us.” Those include a year of public consultation, culminating in a parliamentary vote, which Leam expects to pass. London First’s stance on which location was best was neutral, but the organisation’s members are two to one in favour of Heathrow. Does that mean Leam and his colleagues can now sit back? “We will certainly be keeping an eye on the situation, and there may be a few bumps along the way, but we’re not expecting to see anything that will fundamentally change the nature of the decision,” he says. “People negatively affected will be very vocal. Those that are in favour need to make their voice heard. This is a very key decision that says London is open for business.” What do other members of the London Forum think? Tom Copley, London-wide member (Labour), London Assembly “From the impact on air quality, to noise pollution, to the lack of sufficient surface transport access, London will suffer if Heathrow expansion takes place. Heathrow’s commitments to address concerns surrounding expansion are flimsy at best. It has pledged no more cars on the road with an expanded airport, yet the Airports Commission (which backed Heathrow expansion) predicts a 34% increase. “Even if Heathrow manages to fulfil its commitment of no more cars on the road as a result of expansion, what about increased freight traffic? One of the strongest arguments made for Heathrow expansion is the amount of freight that flies in and out. But that freight will have to get to and from the airport via road. “One of the main strengths of the case for expanding Gatwick Airport is the far greater likelihood of it actually happening. Heathrow is more difficult to deliver both politically and practically. Because of this, we could well still be having the same conversations in 10 years’ time about the need for airport expansion. Better to go for Gatwick expansion now than to continue with dithering and delay.” Colin Stanbridge, chief executive, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry “We have long campaigned for a third runway at Heathrow, believe that the decision is the right one, and are relieved it has finally been made. We need to take this opportunity while understanding that there is still opposition and there are still hurdles to be overcome and challenges ahead. We need to mitigate those delays and commence construction work as soon as practical to maximise the benefits to London and the wider UK. “However, as the runway will take several years to be operational, we need to make best use of existing aviation infrastructure now. If we can press on with the planned improvements at London City Airport, whilst driving forward enhanced links to Stansted, and maintaining the case for another runway at Gatwick, then London can truly become a global city.” Nick Belsten, director and head of central London office, Indigo Planning “The capital can’t confidently plan until there is certainty that the expansion of Heathrow will definitely go ahead. Heathrow will be subject to wave after wave of legal challenges, especially concerning the scheme’s environmental impacts, which will almost certainly cause delay, if not prevent delivery. Predictions suggest that London’s airport capacity will be full within 10 years; it is therefore vital that we have a viable alternative and Gatwick could be delivered quicker, cheaper, and with arguably less environmental impacts.” Bill Page, business space research manager, LGIM Real Assets “The right decision is in the eye of the beholder. For commercial property, Heathrow is right for the office and industrial markets to the west of London. For London’s businesses, Heathrow is right for maintaining and improving access to international markets, and enabling and justifying further infrastructure such as the Crossrail spur and – maybe – linkages to HS2. For Londoners, it is probably the ‘least harmful’ for relative disruption (this won’t apply to the residents of Harmondsworth). Whether it is the right decision for the environment, the longer term expansion of air capacity, speed of delivery and London’s housing stock is more questionable.” Fiona Hamilton, head of international brands, transport and infrastructure, BNP Paribas Real Estate “Expanding both Heathrow and Gatwick would have given London the greatest benefit but, on balance, Heathrow is the better choice. As with station regeneration, the ripple effect of major investment at transport hubs is well proven. “But businesses need certainty to invest. This will be in short supply until Heathrow is rubber-stamped by MPs later this year. Given that some 783 homes will be demolished for the third runway, including the entire community of Longford and much of Harmondsworth, this is by no means a given.” LONDON WEEK • EGL Forum: Is expansion right for Heathrow? …read more • Will second helpings sate the London restaurant market? …read more • How bad is London’s rental contraction? …read more • Office-to-resi skyrockets in London …read more • London’s making things again …read more