Could Trump’s heritage bring investment to Scotland?

[caption id="attachment_871037" align="alignright" width="570"] James Gourley/REX/Shutterstock[/caption] Will the new US president’s Scottish ancestry help or hinder investment into Scottish property? Mark Simmons investigates While septuagenarian Donald J Trump is sworn in as the 45th president of the United States in Washington DC, there will no doubt be much pinching of skin in disbelief in boardrooms and homes across Scotland, birthplace of Trump’s mother (see below). The new president has a strained relationship with the country. Despite repeatedly professing deep affection for his ancestral nation, he has alienated himself from Scotland’s ruling SNP political elite, and the voters who put them into office alike, by unleashing barely restrained invective whenever his business ventures there haven’t gone in the direction he wanted (see below). Only last month a Freedom of Information request by US online news service The Huffington Post resulted in the publication of a series of hectoring letters to then-First Minister Alex Salmond. Outraged by the SNP leader’s refusal to back down on offshore wind turbines (that coincidentally would be visible from one of his golf resorts) Trump blasted in 2012: “You seem hellbent on destroying Scotland’s coastline and therefore Scotland itself.” Trump’s elevation to the Oval Office therefore presents something of a dilemma not just for Scottish politicians, but to business leaders as well, who will have to decide whether being associated with The Donald is worth its weight in potential investment dollars. So far they appear to be unconvinced. “People are not that desperate to do business with him – we’re not at that stage yet,” says Tuffin Ferraby Taylor partner Neil Wotherspoon. But, he adds, “If it turns out Trump has a significant impact on foreign direct investment – say 25% or more – we need to tread more carefully.” Accountancy firm EY’s annual Attractiveness Survey for Scotland suggests that in 2016 the country “moved into the global fast lane” as partial devolution has proved popular with investors. But is the new US president’s fiery rhetoric in danger of ramming Scotland into the hard shoulder? Nick Penny, director and head of Scotland at Savills, hopes not. “Since winning the election he has already calmed down and been less vocal about more extreme views. Whether his affinity for Scotland will be good for Scottish business is still a big unknown.” Although foreign investment into Scottish property has grown substantially in recent years (at the same time as domestic players have shrunk away) the US has by no means been the biggest backer. For example, research by Savills shows that the amount invested by Americans into Scottish offices over the last decade totals £323m – less than 30% of the £1.1bn invested by Germans in the same time period. That could change, as rumours circulate that US funds may be gearing up to move some of their dollars elsewhere. Unlike their president they would be warmly welcomed in Scotland. “Any opportunity to attract people to Scottish real estate, we’ll absolutely take that,” confirms Penny. Hard balls – Trump and golf Earlier this month Trump handed control of his business interests for the duration of his presidency to sons Donald Jr and Eric. These include 17 golf courses across the globe, two of which are in Scotland: Turnberry in Ayrshire, purchased in 2014, and Trump International Golf Links in Aberdeenshire, which won planning consent in 2008 and opened four years later. A senior Scottish property professional who has played a round at the latter says: “It is without a doubt one of the finest golf courses in the world.” Yet neither purchase has been financially remunerative for the Trump empire. Last autumn the BBC revealed that the Scottish resorts jointly lost £9.5m in 2015, amid speculation that overall losses could be much greater. And the political flak resulting from Trump’s Scottish golf ownership could be even costlier. Critics of the Aberdeenshire development, which originally gained planning consent by the narrowest of margins, claim the Trump organisation has failed to deliver. Only one of two 18-hole courses has so far been built and, last month, independent planning inspectors threw out a revised application for 2,750 private homes and holiday flats. Instead, they suggested that the company should be forced to build the affordable housing, community facilities and road improvements promised in 2008. Mother Love – Trump and Scotland Donald Trump has made much of his mother’s Scottish origins. Born in the Western Isles, Mary Anne MacLeod immigrated to New York in her 20s, where she met property mogul Fred Trump. While Mary made regular visits to her former homeland until she died in 2000, Donald’s first recorded visit as an adult to his mother’s birthplace was in 2008, while campaigning to win planning consent for his Aberdeenshire golf resort. Since then the Donald’s relationship with Scotland has become increasingly fraught. Current first minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon, who supported Hilary Clinton in the US presidential campaign, has, publicly at least, avoided the unpleasant spats that troubled her predecessor. But she and Scottish property professionals can have no doubt that the president’s protectionist leanings are always likely to trump his own special relationship with the country.