Manchester’s senior living squeeze

COMMENT Manchester has raised the bar for city-centre development. Cranes are a permanent fixture on a skyline now famous for high-rises, symbolising the city’s economic growth. Records are set to be broken again, with Renaker submitting plans to build the tallest residential tower outside of London. On completion, the proposed 71-storey building will surpass Deansgate Square South Tower as the tallest structure in Manchester. Much of the city’s development continues to be driven by build-to-rent. CBRE’s recent Which City? Which Sector? report ranked Manchester as the top potential growth city for multi-family housing, while also coming in at number one for single family housing and purpose-built student accommodation – fuelled by its increasing population. Buoyed by its recent devolution deal, the city remains resilient against economic uncertainty. The immediate hurdles facing Manchester’s real estate market are rising interest rates and inflation, causing a tightening in the lending landscape and putting pressure on the residential market. However, a more systemic issue is looming for one sector in particular. Senior living shortage Data from the Greater Manchester Combined Authority shows that 454,000 residents in Greater Manchester are over the age of 65. By 2035, three in 20 residents will be 75 years or older. Almost one in three will have a long-term illness. These rises are backed up by CBRE. It forecasts Manchester to have one of the highest increases in the 65+ year old population across its top 10 UK growth cities. The Mayhew Review published in November 2022 found that an average of 7,000 retirement homes are built across the country annually, despite 50,000 being needed. Analysis from BNP Paribas also reveals a current shortfall of 487,000 senior living homes in the UK. While this is a nationwide issue, the predicted growth of Manchester’s older population poses a particular issue. If swift action isn’t taken to increase development, the city could face a chronic undersupply of senior living homes, to the detriment of its older communities. Finding a solution The GMCA has recognised the scale of this challenge, launching a framework in 2021 for Creating Age-Friendly Homes in Greater Manchester. At the centre of the framework was a commitment to creating a Greater Manchester Age-Friendly Housing Charter that ‘sets out a practical guide of considerations when developing new homes and retrofitting as well as investing in existing homes to deliver age-friendly homes’. The creation of the framework and charter covers important themes, including rightsizing, enabling older people to overcome the barriers that are stopping them from downsizing and unlocking housing stock, particularly for families. More recently, the Greater Manchester Ageing Hub outlined plans to refresh its Greater Manchester Age-friendly Strategy. The strategy is out for consultation and includes actions to encourage age-friendly design, better incorporate senior living in planning processes and housing development, while promoting the delivery of new housing models, such as co-housing. This is bringing senior living to the fore of conversations on housing and planning policy in Manchester. Innovative schemes are also coming forward, with the council updating on plans to create the first purpose-built apartments for LGBTQ+ older people in the city. The proposals for the 100 homes on the site of the former Spire Hospital have, however, been in development since 2017. It’s clear that more needs to be done to break the stasis on senior living development in Manchester and across the UK. A feat that will require the resources and skills of local authorities, investors, developers and operators, but, most importantly, national reform. The power of policy One of the tools available to increase the delivery of senior living housing is planning policy. The National Planning Policy Framework currently refers to ‘older people’ as a group in the community that should be catered for when it comes to ‘delivering a sufficient supply of homes’. Considering the scale of the shortage, however, the NPPF must be strengthened to prioritise developing senior living homes. The Levelling-up and Regeneration Bill includes a requirement that the secretary of state must issue guidance for local planning authorities on how their local plan and any supplementary plans should address housing needs that result from old age. The Bill’s consultation included a section on senior living, and referenced adding an additional expectation to the NPPF to ensure ‘that the needs of older people are met, particular regard is given to retirement housing, housing-with-care and care homes’. While this will help when it comes to formulating older people’s housing needs assessments, it is only a starting point. Further changes are critical to bringing in the top-level shift that is required to establish a more consistent approach to the delivery of housing for older people. One that is based on facilitating more senior living development, but also providing the quality and diversity of housing choice. With the Older People’s Housing Taskforce now operational, there’s an opportunity to start making real progress in addressing the senior living shortage – ensuring that older people in Manchester and across the country have access to the housing they deserve. Kirsty Chalkley is a real estate partner at Shoosmiths Photo from Shoosmiths